September 8: Alaska and Montana move from Safe to Likely Republican; Colorado and Virginia from Lean to Likely Democratic. The three elections where the stock market incorrectly predicted the winner of the presidential election were: In 1956, when the incumbent, Dwight D. … Democrat Jon Ossoff is running close with GOP Sen. David Perdue in the polls — but if neither candidate earns a majority in November, the two will advance to a January 2021 runoff. There is actually one way to win the presidency without getting 270 electoral votes. To create your own forecast for the 2020 election, click on the states in the map to toggle them between Democrat, Republican and Tossup and watch the electoral map tallies change. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Phil Scott, a Republican, hasn’t announced whether he’ll also seek a third term. FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. Republicans are on something of a statewide winning streak over the past few years, but Joe Biden has made inroads among the all-important senior vote. However, many people do question the logic of Nostradamus. GOP Sen. Cory Gardner's reelection campaign has always been perilous in a state trending toward Democrats. The 2020 elections feature an unpredictable and unpopular president, a volatile Democratic primary field bigger than any in history, and a narrow Senate majority that will determine whether the next White House can actually do anything. Even if Democrats run the table in the toss-up category after losing Alabama, they still need to flip at least one more seat. In 2020, many political analysts think that Wisconsin, where Democrats will hold their national convention in 2020, could prove to be the tipping point state in a close election. Latest Governor Polls. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. Politics Podcast: Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power, Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College’s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances, How A Conservative 6-3 Majority Would Reshape The Supreme Court, Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night. He needs Republican voters to come home in order to win a second term. September 20: Arizona and Wisconsin move from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; NE-2 from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Pennsylvania from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. | Win McNamee/Getty Images. For President Trump, the best path for re-election is the exact same one that handed him the presidency in 2016. Mark Hulbert Opinion: This spot-on predictor of who will win the 2020 presidential election is not the stock market or even opinion polls Published: July 11, 2020 at 2:01 p.m. There is still a plausible path for Trump to win an Electoral College majority — but it has grown much less likely. Over the last 11 months, Democrats have fortified their new House majority: Candidates have been stockpiling campaign cash, raising previously unheard-of sums to dissuade potential opponents from even trying to beat them. Whether this was a fleeting backlash or a preview of the 2020 electoral map remains to be seen, but the outcome in those key states will be important to watch as the campaign progresses. The current electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Trump won these three states by less than a combined 80,000 votes, or just .06% of the 137 million votes cast. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. At the statewide level, we successfully rated each race, with the “toss-ups” equally divided between those won by Democratic and Republican candidates. The candidate that leads in the polls is shown as the winner of the state. PRESIDENT TRUMP 219 -87 BIDEN 319 +87. Young defeated Galvin by 7 points in 2018 — but polls suggest the race could be closer this year. In 2020, many political analysts think that Wisconsin, where Democrats will hold their national convention in 2020, could prove to be the tipping point state in a close election. The race for Senate control is now close to a coin flip, as Democrats build leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs — and put new states firmly on the map. Types of Horoscope That Exist, Your Luckiest Months in 2021, Based On Your Zodiac Sign, Lucky Colors For 2020 Based On Your Chinese Zodiac, Money Horoscope 2020 – Yearly Financial Astrology Forecast, Gemini – do everything and be everywhere, Capricorn – serious and sober individuals. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. In the House, Democrats have strengthened their grip as the national environment has swung toward them. This would eventually precipitate a cataclysmic event. In 1988, when the popular vote margin was seven percentage points, there were just 17 states which were won by such big margins. Trump won it by 1.2 points. Any review of the various 2020 Electoral College combinations should begin with Florida, a state key to all presidential fortunes since the 2000 presidential election. And it’s why Democrats are favored to retain their House majority but will face a tougher time taking the Senate next year. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. But this time, Donald Trump will be on the ballot too, after carrying the district by 16 points in 2016. Without leadership skills, without empathy – Americans do not deserve such a weak crisis manager like Donald Trump. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Laura Bronner, By Nathaniel Rakich, Michael Tabb and Tony Chow. At the same time, Trump’s weaknesses are undeniable. In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by roughly three million people but won 304 electoral votes and the presidency. Both parties are gearing up for a competitive race to replace term-limited Gov. Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. Florida is the toss-up to end all toss-ups. The other large- or medium-sized states holding governor’s races in 2020 are less competitive. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast. The list of toss-ups omits some familiar states and includes some that are newer to the ranks of top-tier battlegronds. Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (99%+). Mitt Romney took it back by a 7-point margin in 2012, but it was again close in 2016. Born in 1503 in Saint Remi, he has become quite popular 500 years later for the simple predictions he made. University of Virginia Center for Politics, Cook Political Report Electoral College Forecast, The Economist's US Presidential Election Forecast, The Economist's US presidential election forecast, Minnesota 2nd Congressional District Election Delayed after Candidate Dies, Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast. The reasons for why many Americans challenge Trump’s administration are: the president’s lies (13%), his racism (11%), incompetence (11%) and the fact that he doesn’t have a presidential outlook (7%). The ratings are half-science, half-art — but all rigor. The infamous Nostradamus was a renowned French doctor and remarkable astrologer. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. simplemaps_election.order = ['T', 'D', 'R']; //which color is shown first on click Here we have two charts for similar questions by two American astrologers who cast the charts at different locations and times. If Democrats win Florida, any one of the three Rust Belt states would secure the presidency, unless Trump can pick off another blue state that Democrats won in 2016. | Zach Gibson/Getty Images. Republicans struggled to plug recruiting holes and fell farther behind in the cash dash. We do have a polling map; the two should converge as the election nears and forecasters/models place more weight on the polls. Mike Parson — both Republicans — are favored to win in 2020, though Democrats are excited about their recruit in Missouri: state Auditor Nicole Galloway. West Virginia Gov. What is a Horoscope ? Republican Martha McSally became the first Republican to lose a Senate race in Arizona since 1988 — only to then score an appointment to the state's other Senate seat. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. Updated three times daily, this map will track the electoral vote count based on polling, with no toss-ups (unless exactly tied). Trump has constantly registered negative figures: foreign trade (41% approve of the way he is handling it, 47% disapprove, with a 9% increase among the ranks of his electoral basis), immigration (41% support him, 54% disapprove), external politics (with negative ratings for the way Trump has handled both North Korea and Iran). 2020 Presidential Election Prediction. Anthony Brindisi* (D) vs. Claudia Tenney (R). Democrats face a tall task in holding the governorship in Montana; incumbent Steve Bullock, who is running for president as a Democrat with electoral success in a red state, is term-limited. Winning the national popular vote doesn’t matter, as we saw most recently in the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections where the winner of the popular vote actually lost the election. Other than Alabama, Democrats are also defending Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire — two presidential battlegrounds where, for now, Democratic incumbents are favored to retain their seats. Nostradamus has predicted many disasters in the previous years, including asteroids hitting the earth. Polls show Joe Biden with a 5-10 point lead in Pennsylvania — the largest swing state other than Florida. Jay Inslee’s decision to run for reelection after abandoning his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination will likely result in Inslee winning a third term. September 16:  Four changes. Election Projection. Roy Cooper is seeking reelection. Read Amy Walter's analysis here. When the consensus forecast changes, the map will automatically change on your site too! That means Trump can lose Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and Michigan (16 electoral votes) and secure another four years in the White House by carrying Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) and every other state he won three years ago. A handful of smaller states could be up for grabs. At the same time, Indiana Gov. And a new congressional map in North Carolina is almost guaranteed to give Democrats at least two additional seats to cushion their majority — and possibly more pending a state court decision about the re-map it ordered earlier this year. They’re presented on a 7-point scale: Races that are “solid” for each party are essentially locked in. Those favoring one party are rated as “likely” or “lean,” depending on the strength of the party’s advantage. Sen. Cory Gardner. Jim Justice, who was elected as a Democrat in 2016 but quickly switched parties to become a Republican in 2017, faces challenges in both the primary and general elections that threaten his bid for a second term. Hillary Clinton was so sure of her victory in these states that she didn’t even campaign in Wisconsin. 2020 vs. 2016 to Election Day. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Presidential forecast. Moreover, since most of his writings are rather vague it is not right to directly relate them to the disaster or even that takes place. There’s a huge piece of the puzzle still missing: the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee. Previous statewide and congressional district election results data from the MIT Election Lab. On the field of combat in a single battle; He will pierce his eyes through a golden cage, Two wounds made one, then he dies a cruel death.”. Taegan Goddard also runs Political Wire, Political Job Hunt and the Political Dictionary. Some key points from our most up-to-date predictions: In the race for the White House, President Donald Trump is now an underdog to win a second term. Democrats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan swept the races for Senate and governor, and picked up valuable House seats, defeating Trump-backed Republicans at all levels. But if Democrats lose all three states again, then they would need another path to the presidency. What Is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact? Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night The GOP is defending only two seats in states Trump lost in 2016. Republicans nominated state Sen. Dale Crafts to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. This process has yielded a clear picture of the realigning Trump-era political environment, with education and population density playing becoming increasingly predictive of voters’ choices. Republican Mike Parson became governor in 2018 after Eric Greitens resigned. That’s because the Senate seats Democrats need to flip are also presidential battleground states, and only a rare handful of presidential-year Senate races deviate from the top of the ticket nowadays. In recent modern elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. As Joe Biden has surged to a national lead, most high-quality polls show him with a significant lead in Michigan. Weekly email Podcast Latest Forecast. Democrats currently hold 235 House seats — a 17-seat majority — following the resignation Rep. Katie Hill (D-Calif.) earlier this month. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. The largest — and currently the most competitive — is in North Carolina, where Democratic Gov. Democrat Doug Jones, who faces former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, is the most vulnerable senator from either party up in 2020. Steve Bullock. Democrat Cal Cunningham has consistently led GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, who lags behind Trump in polls. Which States Split Their Electoral Votes? And Vermont Gov. Nostradamus predictions for the future have been used in a variety of ways, including propaganda “Nostradamus leaflets” during the Second World War by German and allied pilots. 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. They answer the question practically on their own. It’s obvious by playing with the interactive electoral map that if Democrats can flip all three states back to their column in 2020, then they can win the election (assuming they hold all of the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016.). Safe is 15% or higher. RCP Governor Ratings, Map. Compared to the presidential race, the Senate map is well-defined. See the regular Biden-Trump Polling Map for more granular ratings based on the margin between the two nominees. From CNN: "President Donald Trump enters the final six weeks of the election season as the underdog as Joe Biden maintains his edge both nationally and in many of the critical battleground states that will determine the outcome and as he completely erased the fundraising advantage that the incumbent had amassed earlier this year.". State-by-state coverage with projections and links to the polls. The universal energies and the stars are influencing the United States of America quite heavily in 2020. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight But in reality, it’s hard to imagine a Democratic path to the Senate majority that doesn’t come with a Democratic White House win. We label those states safe for consistency with other forecasts. The ratings are presented on a seven-point scale, rating different states and districts as “solid,” “likely” or leaning” toward one party — unless no one holds a marked edge and we called the race a “toss-up.”. Washington Gov. North Carolina Gov. September 21: ME-2 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. According to website Nostradamus2021.com, the famous French prophet’s predictions for the year 2021 are grim at best. Democratic state Auditor Nicole Galloway is running a strong campaign. And we're trying to predict how it will all turn out on Nov. 3, 2020. Trump became the first Republican to win Wisconsin since 1984, and all indications point to another close race in 2020. POLITICO predicts the 2020 election. But because of Democratic gains among college-educated voters in these states, both have moved sharply toward the Democrats in recent years. You can view the full series of three maps here. All Latest Election Polls. Sep. 25, 2020. The key to President Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election was that he carried three “Rust Belt” states that many expected Democrats to win: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Democrats’ ability to put the Senate in play mostly depends on mounting serious challenges in at least some of those states. Michelle Fischbach, will finally be the one to send Peterson packing after some increasingly close calls. 2020 Elections. Election 2020 Calendar. Nostradamus claimed that his prophecies were based on a combination of astrological study and divine inspiration. More Election 2020. Colin Allred* (D) vs. Genevieve Collins (R). Hillary Clinton carried it by 2 points in 2016, after Mitt Romney won it by 15 four years earlier. But polling data, combined with election results since 2016, suggest the political realignment of the Trump era is continuing apace. 2020 US Presidential Election, Winner Predictions. But that was still enough to get Trump to the 270 to win. It appears that the predictions made by Nostradamus hundreds of years ago with regard to the presidential elections from November of 2020 might come true. There are only 11 governorships up next year, with most states choosing to hold those elections during midterm years. One way of looking at how the electoral map has changed in recent years is to evaluate which states are most likely to provide the electoral votes needed to secure 270. The basic math: Democrats face an uphill battle to hold Sen. Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama, a state where Trump received 62 percent of the vote. Election signs of the various Democratic 2020 candidates in Des Moines, Iowa. GOP Rep. Don Young, the dean of the House, faces a rematch from Alyse Galvin. Former Gov. The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report. President Donald Trump. Our interactive presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts: We also use the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com. A rematch in one of Democrats' most vulnerable seats: Republican former Rep. Claudia Tenney wants another shot at Democrat Anthony Brindisi, two years after Brindisi defeated her by 2 points. Meanwhile, we rate two small states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 as toss-ups: Nevada and New Hampshire. The Presidency leans in favor of the Democrats. One of Nostradamus’s most important prediction for the year 2020 is based on the presidential elections in the United States which will take place at the end of this year: Trump might lose the elections and his seat will be taken by a younger candidate. The site also features a series of explainers about how presidents are actually elected in the United States. Maine is home to the most hotly contested Senate race in the country. Just like it has constantly happened in the years since Trump’s mandate at the White House, those who disapprove of his performance do this mainly because of his behaviour. This map aggregates the ratings of nine organizations (more to be added as they become available) to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. Amongst many other predictions Nostradamus forecast the apocalypse in 2021, which has been quite shocking for people around the world.This is due to the countless number of prophecies found in the Nostradamus writings. After Alabama, we have three Republican-held races in the toss-up category: Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina. Longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson chose to seek reelection, despite the fact that his rural district voted for President Trump by 31 points in 2016. The 2020 forecast comes after a successful 2018: Of 435 House races, POLITICO only rated 22 as “toss-ups” and missed just three contests in which we thought Republicans were favored but Democrats won election. If Trump were to win Florida again, Democrats would need to recapture three Midwestern states in the Rust Belt — or find substitutes — to win the presidency. Both charts show the same answer. While Democrats could struggle to hold some of their more tenuous seats — like those won narrowly in 2018 by now-Reps. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.), Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) and Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.) — the party has a firmer grip on a number of newly-won suburban seats outside Washington, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles and Seattle. ET This is not a map based on current polling, but rather a look ahead to November. All Rights Reserved. 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